The best time of the year is officially back, and so am I with another year of fantasy football hot takes! This is one of the more difficult years in recent memory to have a designated draft plan, with the fantasy landscape shifting back to drafting receivers in the first round over running backs like it did back in 2016. I have always been a big believer in drafting an elite running back in the first, so this has caused me to put a lot more thought into my mock drafts and draft boards. Keeping the recent draft trends in mind, I have developed another list of my ten hottest takes for the 2023 fantasy football season.
(NOTE: Predictions are for PPR scoring systems.)
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff will have a top 5 finish in QB rankings this season.
I am totally expecting Jared Goff to have a similar breakout season that Geno Smith did last year. He is in a weird spot with his long term career, where he is being given a chance to control the reigns but could also be replaced at any moment now if he has struggles. I think he will prove the doubters wrong in a big way. They drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the top 15 and LaPorta to fill Hockenson’s role at tight end, Goff has some exciting new weapons that will help the Lions win the NFC North and propel Jared Goff to fantasy stardom this season.
None of the first round QBs drafted this year will finish within the top 15 QB ranks.
As exciting as the big three of CJ Stroud, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson are in real life, the reality is that they are all in less than ideal situations for real life and for fantasy. I expect them to have some early season struggles at the very least, and none of them really have a true number one wide receiver (Michael Pittman is not a true number one, in my opinion). I expect them all to finish outside the top 15, and I will say Anthony Richardson will be the highest scoring of the three due to his rushing abilities.
Jalen Hurts will outscore Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points.
For those of you who have followed previous editions of my fantasy football hot takes, you know that I have always been one of Jalen Hurts biggest believers and saw his potential in the NFL early on. My most successful prediction last year was that he would be a top five quarterback, and he more than delivered, considering he led the Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance and got one of the largest extensions in NFL history in addition to making the top five threshold predicted. That being said, it would feel wrong to not include him this year, so I am going on record to say that this year he will do the unthinkable and be the number one fantasy football quarterback, outscoring Patrick Mahomes and taking the throne. He has another year of chemistry under his belt with Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown along with less of a strong backfield to vulture Hurts’ rushing in the red zone, so I see an absolute monster season in the cards for Jalen Hurts. I am excited to see how he follows up last season.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson will be the first Patriots RB in recent history to repeat as a top 10 fantasy RB and a consecutive 1,000 yard rusher.
The Patriots have not had a running back rush for consecutive 1,000 yard seasons since Curtis Martin played there from 1995-1997. I think Rhamondre will finally be the one to change the trajectory. Even though they brought in Ezekiel Elliott from free agency, it was very apparent to anyone who watched Cowboys games last year that the once superstar player is on his last legs. With an offense in New England that is very talent deficient, I don’t see anyone truly stealing Rhamondre’s touches, and I think he will follow up last season with an even better performance this season, finding himself as a top 10 PPR back once again.
Bijan Robinson will finish as the overall RB1.
Arthur Smith is one of the few head coaches employing the run-first offense philosophy, and he embraced this by drafting Bijan Robinson in the top 10. He finally has a true superstar back under his reins for him to embrace his infamous “smash mouth” offense, and especially with a question mark at quarterback with Desmond Ridder under center, I expect them to feed Bijan with amazing results. I predict it will be similar to Ezekiel Elliott’s rookie season on the Cowboys, and with the way the running back position has been trending downward in points I think this monster season will end up with him being the top scoring running back in all formats.
Kenneth Gainwell will be the highest scoring Eagles running back, not Rashaad Penny or D’Andre Swift.
As intriguing it is on paper having a backfield that consists of D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, who both are some of the league’s most efficient backs when fully healthy, availability is their worst ability sadly. I see both of them getting hurt throughout the season, and since Gainwell has familiarity with the offensive scheme, I think he will have a larger role to start than people anticipate, and once Penny and Swift deal with nagging injuries he will fully take over the largest share of the backfield.
Wide Receivers
Deandre Hopkins will finish outside the top 30 wide receivers.
Deandre Hopkins was probably the most intriguing receiver to hit the open free agent market, and fantasy owners were excited to see his next destination after he was still able to put up great numbers at age 31, coming off a six game suspension, and with an injury to Kyler Murray in the late season. However, after hearing he signed with Tennessee, I was less than enthused. Tennessee will always be a run first offense as long as Derrick Henry is performing and on the roster, and the Titans have a reputation for old receivers arriving there and their numbers falling off a cliff. I expect the same out of DHop unfortunately, as he probably picked the worst offense for fantasy purposes, along with a gut feeling that his age will finally catch up to him this upcoming season.
Christian Kirk will have more fantasy points than Calvin Ridley.
As cool of a story as it would be for Calvin Ridley to come back and be a star receiver for Trevor Lawrence’s offense, a lot of people seem to forget that the man basically hasn’t played an NFL snap in two years. That is ages in NFL terms and I am not so certain he will return the same player he was before. I still think this offense will run through Christian Kirk as the number one guy, and that Calvin Ridley will struggle to find the success he once had. Buy low on Christian Kirk in the draft, I think you will be very pleased.
DJ Moore will be a top 10 receiver on the Chicago Bears.
Bears fans galore were ecstatic when DJ Moore was traded to Chicago for the number one pick, as Justin Fields finally got the number one receiver the Bears were in dire need of. This naturally brings up comparisons to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles adding A.J. Brown last year. When looking at the stats, DJ Moore actually had more 1000 yard seasons and better numbers than Brown did before leaving Tennessee, and we all know how amazing A.J. Brown played last season. I see history repeating itself with DJ Moore, as he has had terrible quarterback play throughout his entire tenure in Carolina. I think Justin Fields will take the coveted third year leap as a passer, and DJ Moore will be the biggest benefactor. I see him having a statline of 1200 yards, 8 TDs and a top 10 finish at the position.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta will have a historic rookie season and finish as a top 5 tight end.
Reports from training camp have been coming out that Sam LaPorta is one of Jared Goff’s new favorite targets and is going to be the second guy up after Amon-Ra St Brown. I am a full believer in the Sam LaPorta hype as he fits the role TJ Hockenson played perfectly, and I think he will have one of the best rookie TE seasons in history, and I predict he will finish with 920 yards, 5 TDs and easily have a top 5 finish at the position.
These are my fantasy football hot takes for the season! What would you change in my predictions? Let me know in the comments.