Last week saw the NBA draft lottery engage viewers interested in seeing who was going to win the opportunity to draft highly coveted draft prospect Victor Wembanyama, the most hyped up NBA draft prospect since LeBron James. The San Antonio Spurs leapfrogged the bottom seeded Pistons and Rockets to receive the number one pick in which they will almost certainly draft the generational prospect.
The draft lottery sparks debate every year of whether the NFL should follow the other three major sports leagues and adopt a lottery system for their draft. There are clear pros and cons to a draft lottery, and while I have had some annoyances myself with how the NBA has handled the odds in theirs, the attempt at preventing blatant tanking by removing the incentive is clear. The NFL has often prided themselves on being different than the rest of the professional sports leagues with the way they handle their business. Should the NFL cave and follow suit with the way the other leagues handle their draft order? Let’s take a look at the NFL’s pros and cons for the lottery system.
Starting with the potential benefits, we have seen many quarterback prospects in recent years go with the top picks of the draft and be hyped up as “generational.” There has been plenty of chatter from fans of losing teams on wanting to tank for past prospects such as Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young, and we have seen teams like the Carolina Panthers trade significant assets in order to obtain the number one pick from the Chicago Bears in order to get their guy. Adding a lottery system in place would stop some of the terrible teams from trying to lose out in the last few games of the season for their chance at a franchise changing quarterback. It would keep teams like the Houston Texans and New York Jets from running some questionable plays in weeks 14-17. There could be a significant difference in how the end of year divisional matchups play out.
However, the biggest con and reason against a lottery I see is that the NFL is really not a sport where teams tank for draft picks. Unlike the NBA, talent is much more dispersed through the draft than at the top three, and coaches and players have much more to lose each season. Unless the coach is freshly hired to a large contract, there is really no leeway for a head coach to deliberately throw a season in a sport where every game is so crucial. The NFL is only 17 games long, and every game is incredibly important to a team’s record. The NBA and NHL have 82 games, and the MLB has a whopping 162 games. There is much more room for a team to lose games over the course of a season and plan out a long term strategy where they could tank. Prospects at the top of the draft class make or break a team more in those leagues, where the NFL has many more positions. There are usually only a few quarterback needy teams a year, and developing a quarterback is a lot harder than any other position.
Overall, I do not think that what currently isn’t broken needs a fix. While I could understand the benefits to moving to a lottery if more and more “generational” prospects come out, but for now I think the system is working well the way it is. With plenty of draft day trades and competitive teams, the NFL does not have a tanking problem and therefore does not need a lottery.
Do you think the NFL should add a lottery system? Let me know in the comments.
They should do a lottery system