X’s Hot Takes: NBA Award Predictions at the All Star Break

We have officially reached the midseason mark of the NBA season, where the playoff and award races begin to have their frontrunners set in stone. This year, the award race is just heating up. There has been so much excitement across the league this season, and there has not been one truly dominant team or player in these races compared to seasons past. The NBA has instituted a new and somewhat controversial rule where you have to play in 65 games for eligibility to receive awards. When Joel Embiid, who was the frontrunner for MVP fell victim to a meniscus injury, the rule has just now started to have its effects. Parity in the league is the highest it has ever been, which I personally love and think the NBA is in the best place it has been it in years. With that being said, here is my personal opinion on who should win each major award at this point in the season assuming these guys keep their current pace.

MVP

Winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

I personally think the award should be given to Shai this season. The improvement he and the Thunder have made over the past few seasons is remarkable, and would not be possible due to the jump that Shai has made. He has gone from a most improved candidate to a most valuable player candidate due to his scoring and impact on defense. This season, Shai has posted averages of 31.1 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game and 6.5 assists per game. His dribbling and footwork make him a nightmare to defend, and is a large part in him leading the league in both drives and offensive win shares. He also has a league high 2.2 steals per game, which is just one stat that shows how great of a defender he is. Shai also has 18 total blocks which is the best of all guards in the league, and is tied for the most defensive win shares in the league. The experience he has gained as a leader over the past few seasons is finally leading to wins for the team now, as the Thunder have gone from a play in team to top dogs in the west, which quite frankly would not be possible without Shai. He has my vote for MVP.

Runner Ups: Nikola Jokic, Donovan Mitchell

Jokic’s consistency at the top of this race is remarkable, and if he were to win the MVP again this season he would become the ninth player to win three or more MVP awards, joining the likes of Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Moses Malone of guys who have won exactly three MVP awards. Jokic has played phenomenal again this season as per usual, with averages of 26.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Nuggets have scored 21.3 more points per possession when Jokic is on the court, and the way Jokic is able to pass and move the ball across the court is just so phenomenal and cannot be replicated by anyone else in the league. The one thing that stops him for me from getting the award this year (disregarding voter fatigue), is how well Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have played compared to his other two MVP years when they were battling injuries.

My personal vote for third place is a bit controversial, but I would give it to Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs have to be the most underrated and disrespected contender in the league, as they currently are the second seed in the East due to winning 18 of their last 20 games. This would not be possible without the presence of Mitchell. With early season injuries to both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, the Cavs looked to be in for some struggles. They instead responded with having an even better record than they had with all their starters healthy. Mitchell has been incredible down the stretch, averaging 28.4 points per game, 5.4 rebounds per game and 6.3 assists per game. He also has 19 total games with 30 points scored, and his thrilling ability to score from anywhere has not only saved the Cavs from falling into a hole with their injuries, but has put them in the drivers seat to be true contenders in the East. It is crazy to me that Mitchell is not more mentioned in the MVP race, his numbers and impact should not be taken lightly. If it were another year, he could very well be the MVP.

Other honorable mentions in the race include Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antekounmpo, Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard.

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Victor Wembanyama

To say that Victor Wembanyama has lived up to the top billing he received as a draft prospect would be a tremendous understatement. Wemby has been phenomenal in his rookie year and has been the lone bright spot for San Antonio this season. The league has never seen a player with a skillset similar to Wemby’s, with his ball handling and agility as a seven-footer being unheard of. There has been zero sign of the “rookie wall” that some top prospects face, with Wemby averaging 20.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, along with a league leading 3.2 blocks per game. He is such a complete player at just 20 years old, already being an all NBA level scorer and defender with his eight foot wingspan. He is the first rookie since Zion Williamson to average over 20 points per game, and you can argue that scoring is not even the greatest asset in his toolkit. His latest accolade saw him logging a triple double against the Raptors with 27 points, 14 rebounds and 10 blocks, in which a 25/10/5/10b stat line is something that has not been done since Hakeem Olajuwon last did it in 1996. To get a triple double with blocks is unreal, not to mention as a rookie, and puts him in company with other hall of famers who share this feat. This award is a no brainer to me, the rookie of the year is Wemby’s to lose.

Runner Ups: Chet Holmgren, Brandon Miller

If Chet had made his debut in any other year, he would likely be the far and away frontrunner for rookie of the year. However, even though he may have to share the spotlight with a generational player this season, Chet’s impact cannot be overlooked. Chet has bounced back nicely from last years season ending Lisfranc injury, with averages of 16.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.6 blocks per game. His 2.6 blocks per game is top five in the league and this outstanding level of defense has inserted Chet into talks of the leagues best centers as just a rookie. Chet has also logged 14 double doubles and has significantly helped the Thunder get to the top the standings in the West.

Brandon Miller has gotten a lot less media attention due to the combination of both Chet and Wemby stealing his Thunder and playing in a small market like Charlotte, but make no mistake he has also been great. As one of the lone bright spots for the Hornets this season, Miller has total averages of 16.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. His offensive game has been steadily improving over the past month, as his averages have upped to 22/5/3. He also broke the team’s record for most three pointers made by a rookie with 109 total threes, which is an impressive feat without even mentioning the fact that there are still two months left of play, so he will end up shattering the previous record held by DJ Augustin. Now that Miller has gotten accustomed to the speed of the NBA, he looks to be a franchise cornerstone in Charlotte.

Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Rudy Gobert

After a couple down seasons, Rudy Gobert is back to form and gearing up to win defensive player of the year for the fourth time. The three time award winner has been a major anchor for Minnesota’s success this year. Minnesota has arguably the top defense in the league this season, due to Gobert’s number one defensive rating adjusted for minutes played. Gobert also is ranked number one in the league in defensive win shares, ranks in the top 5 with an average of 9 defensive rebounds per game, and lastly ranks top 10 in the league with 2.1 blocks per game. His presence has elevated the rest of the team on defense with Minnesota leading the league in lowest points allowed, which in turn has helped them get to the top of the standings in the West. After people were saying the Timberwolves trading for Gobert was one of the worst trades ever just last year, it is safe to say his performance has shut the haters up and changed the narrative this season. His impact to the culture of Minnesota makes him deserving of his fourth defensive player of the year award.

Runner Ups: Victor Wembanyama, Jarrett Allen

If the Spurs were a better overall team, this award would belong to Wembanyama. His defensive statistics are unreal. As previously mentioned he leads the league in blocks per game by a wide margin with 3.2, and barring any unforeseen changes he will be the first rookie to lead the league in blocks since Manute Bol in 1986. Teams are afraid to shoot in the paint when Wemby is in the lineup due to his 8 foot wingspan. The most impressive thing about his highlight reel worthy blocks is that unlike his peers who are good at blocking shots, Wemby manages to stay out of foul trouble which would be essential if the Spurs were contenders. His 47 total steals and 134 blocks this season are already more than Rudy Gobert’s first defensive player of the year season which proves to me that if the Spurs as a whole were making more of a defensive impact, Wemby would be the frontrunner.

Jarrett Allen has been an essential asset to the Cavs defense and is deserving of some votes as well. In their hot streak of winning the last 18 of 20 games, Allen has helped anchor the team to the 2nd overall defensive rating. Their ranking improves to first when he is on the court. Allen is averaging a combined 2 steals and blocks per game, ranks in the top 15 with 7.1 defensive rebounds per game, and is holding opponents to a 57.7% shooting percentage when they are within six feet of the basket. If he is able to heat up even more, Allen could still have a chance at the award, but he deserves his props regardless.

6th Man of the Year

Winner: Malik Monk

This award to me is personally the most up in the air right now, but I think Malik Monk will end up as the 6th man of the year. Monk is having somewhat of a breakout year with career best averages of 15.1 points and 5.3 assists per game. Monk’s scoring and playmaking has had a huge impact in keeping the Kings in the playoff picture in the competitive western conference standings. He also leads the league in assists on half court drives which is particularly impressive considering he is coming off the bench and is not a natural point guard. Monk is coming off four straight 20 point games which has put him in the drivers seat to win this award. The energy that Monk brings to the court makes him worthy of being crowned as the 6th man of the year.

Runner Ups: Tim Hardaway Jr., Russell Westbrook

Tim Hardaway Jr. is a close second for the 6th man of the year award and for good reason. Hardaway is in the midst of a resurgent season in Dallas as he is averaging 17.3 points per game, his highest since 2018 in which he was still a member of the New York Knicks. He also has a three point shooting percentage of 36.5%. He has seen some struggles as of late, as he only averaged 10.6 points per game in January, but he should bounce back from his slump and give Monk a fight for the award. His impact on the Mavericks bench cannot be replicated, and if it weren’t for Monk’s hot streak this month he would likely be my pick to win the award.

In a selfless move, Russell Westbrook volunteered to come off the bench for the Clippers this season and the results have been wonderful for the team. While his scoring average (11.4 PPG) is lower than the rest of the candidates for the award, he is also averaging 5.4 rebounds per game and 4.6 assists per game and is arguably the most well rounded of the group. While he is not what he was in his prime, he still has the ability to go off for a triple double on any given night and is a big reason why the Clippers are having a great year. His biggest knock for not winning the award is that voters will split between him and Norman Powell for their selections.

Most Improved Player

Winner: Coby White

The most improved player award is the most difficult award to predict due to its lack of predefined criteria. If you are looking at it through the lens of looking for the biggest statistical jump over one season, then there is nobody more deserving of the award than Coby White. The career trajectory of Coby White has flipped on its head overnight, as Coby has gone from a staple of trade talks in Chicago to a potential franchise cornerstone for the most directionless team in the league. Coby has blossomed in a starting role this season with the absence of LaVine, as in just one season his numbers have improved from 9.7 to 19.6 points per game, 2.9 to 4.7 rebounds a game, and 2.8 assists per game. His efficiency has also significantly improved as his field goal and three point shooting percentages have gone from 44.3 to 46.3% and 37.2 to 39.7%, respectively. Coby is finally developing into the point guard that the Bulls expected when they drafted him 7th overall in 2019, and his improvement should not go unrecognized by the league. He has made the largest statistical jump compared to the rest of the candidates and deserves to take home the award.

Runner Ups: Tyrese Maxey, Alperen Sengun

Any worries about how the 76ers were going to replace James Hardens production were quickly squashed by Tyrese Maxey. Without Harden, Maxey has been given the opportunity to blossom into a star. Maxey has already been a better scorer than Harden was on the Sixers, as he is averaging 25.7 points per game compared to Harden’s 21 in both years of his Philly tenure. His 25.7 points per game is also a significant improvement from the 20.3 points per game he averaged last year. He has also improved significantly as a playmaker, as his rebounds and assists have went from 2.9 and 3.5 to 3.7 and 6.4 assists, respectively. His jump in stats earned him his first all star appearance this year, and will likely be far from his last. The main reason I do not have him winning the award as many others do is due to the fact that even though his numbers have improved, his efficiency is down. His field goal percentage has dropped from 48.1 to 44.9%, and his three point percentage has taken an even larger dip from 43.4 to 37.8%. This raises the question of how much has he really improved due to skill compared to increased usage with the absence of Harden. While I do think his skill has improved, the efficiency dip is why I have him falling short of the award.

Alperen Sengun has always had superstar potential, but he is finally putting it all together in his third season. His points per game has improved from 14.8 to 21.2 this season, and his assists per game have gone up from 3.9 to 5. The Rockets hiring Ime Udoka as their coach has helped Sengun make significant strides as a defender, which in turn has led to the Rockets improved record this season. His stats are remarkably similar to Nikola Jokić’s third season, and if he keeps up this improvement he will live up to the “baby Jokic” reputation in no time. Sengun being a third year player is the main reason I do not have him winning, as this steady improvement is to be expected.

Coach of the Year

Winner: Mark Daigneault

The Thunder jumping from a play in team to the top of the western conference standings is an unbelievable turnaround, and would not be possible without Daigneault’s coaching. Through the position less rotations, the development of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, and Shai’s MVP caliber season it has been a masterclass for Daigneault. Daigneault finished as the runner up to Kings’ Mike Brown in last years race, and with the way he has turned the franchise around, this should be the year he takes the award home.

Runner Ups: Chris Finch, J.B. Bickerstaff

Chris Finch has finally figured out how to utilize all his star players, and the results have made the Timberwolves a true playoff contender. With arguably the leagues best defense the Timberwolves have shut down opposing teams stars every night, and Rudy Gobert is back to the defensive player of the year form he was in for the Jazz. Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards have been constant headaches for opposing defenses, giving them one of the leagues best offenses as well. Finch is a close second for this award.

J.B. Bickerstaff also deserves his flowers. In what could have easily been a season that got out of control quick with the injuries to Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, Bickerstaff made the most of his short handed rotations and ended up with a better record than when everyone was fully healthy. They have won 18 of their last 20 games and are proving they are true contenders in the east. There is a legitimate argument for him to win as well.

What are your NBA award predictions for this season? Let me know in the comments.