After nearly two years since the previous installment, I am back with another entry in my worst predictions series! My latest edition will be placing the heat on well known NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. Kiper has been doing mock drafts and big boards since 1984, and he has had his fair share of misses on draft prospects. Despite his 40 year tenure, he has one of the lowest hit rates on predicting first round landing spots, and the number of picks he has gotten correct has been dropping like a fly over the years. After doing some research, here is my ranking on Mel Kiper’s worst predictions about NFL Draft prospects, so get the popcorn ready and sit back for some laughs.
10. “Johnny Manziel should be the number one pick” (2014)
While many draft scouts were high on Johnny Manziel in 2014 due to his electric college career, Kiper took it one step further. He said that Manziel deserved to be the number one pick in the entire draft, and his pro comparison for Manziel was Hall of Fame quarterback Fran Tarkenton. Manziel ended up being one of the biggest “what ifs” in NFL history after being selected by the Browns with the 22nd pick. He found himself out of the NFL after just two seasons due to poor play and off the field issues, which makes it pretty safe to say he strayed far from the Hall of Fame comparisons Kiper placed on him.
9. “Jamarcus Russell has John Elway like ability” (2007)
Jamarcus Russell was highly toted as the number one prospect in 200, so it is hard to blame Kiper completely for falling for the hype train on this one. However, his pro comparison is where he ends up making this list. Kiper praised Russell for his arm strength and said that he had a skill set that reminded him of John Elway, and that he also had the ability to be a top five quarterback in the league. Russell instead became one of the top five biggest draft busts in NFL history. He faced many issues in his three seasons in Oakland including inconsistency, weight gain, poor work ethic and drug addiction. He finished his career with a 7-18 record as a starter and 4,083 total passing yards, a number that John Elway would beat in a single season if he played in the modern era.
8. “Mitch Trubisky is a better prospect than Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson” (2017)
In another narrative that lots of NFL Draft scouts were pushing in 2017, Kiper was one of the biggest named advocates for Mitch Trubisky pre-draft. He had him as the top quarterback on his big board in 2017, saying he was the best passer in college football over previous Heisman winners Lamar Jackson (note: was not draft eligible until 2018) and Deshaun Watson, along with Patrick Mahomes who was much more of a raw prospect at the time. Team scouts seemed to have the same big boards, as the Bears traded up one spot to select him with the second overall pick in 2017. Like all the Bears quarterbacks before him, Trubisky struggled with consistency during his tenure in Chicago, as he regressed after his Pro Bowl season in 2018 and was ranked as a bottom five starter by Pro Football Focus for his next two seasons before the Bears and him part ways. On the contrary, we all know it went for the other two quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes was selected with the 10th pick by the Chiefs and has created a dynasty in Kansas City, winning three Super Bowls and putting up historic numbers while doing it. Deshaun Watson made three straight Pro Bowls during his Texans stint and led the league in passing yards (4,823 yards) in 2020. Passing on Mahomes for Trubisky is something that Bears fans like myself will never get over, and scouts like Kiper were partially responsible for pushing Trubisky up draft boards to begin with.
7. “The Colts passing on Trent Dilfer for Marshall Faulk is why they pick 2nd in the draft every year” (1994)
In one of Mel Kiper’s most infamous draft moments, he criticized the Colts for passing on Trent Dilfer twice with two top ten picks, with one of those picks reserved to select hall of fame running back Marshall Faulk. This led to the Colts GM Bill Tobin publicly ripping Kiper, hilariously saying “who the hell is Mel Kiper anyway?” Kiper’s take obviously aged quite poorly, as while Faulk was out breaking records, Trent Dilfer did not live up to his top ten billing at all. Dilfer only managed to make one pro bowl in his career and never threw for more than 3,000 yards. He is most known for winning a Super Bowl with the Ravens in 2000 as the infamous “game manager who won a ring,” before becoming the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl and have the team move on from him the next season.
6. “Connor Cook has more NFL ability than Kirk Cousins” (2016)
Another quarterback that Kiper was very high on that failed to pan out was Connor Cook out of Michigan State in 2016. Kiper had a second round grade on Cook, and had him ranked as the 37th overall player on his big board. He said he saw more ability in Cook than his Michigan State predecessor Kirk Cousins, and that he would go higher in the draft than Cousins did as a result. While he did technically go a two whole spots higher (Cook was the 100th pick, Cousins was the 102nd), Cook only played one game ever as a pro, while Kirk Cousins is now a four time pro bowler and just received a massive, four year deal with the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. Safe to say this aged like milk.
5. “Mike Williams is a future Hall of Famer” (2005)
We start the top five with one of Mel Kiper’s boldest claims pre draft, as he put wide receiver Mike Williams as the number one player on his big board over Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, DeMarcus Ware, and others. When the Lions drafted him with the 10th overall pick, he graded it as an amazing pick for the Lions. To make matters worse, he doubled down on this when he responded to fellow ESPN analyst Merrill Hoge’s criticism by saying he would see Hoge at his hall of fame induction. Mike Williams was obviously far from a Hall of Fame level player, he was barely a serviceable player for most of his short career. He lasted only five seasons, with his best season being one where he had 751 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
4. “Ricky Stanzi will have a better career than Cam Newton and Andy Dalton” (2011)
Now you might be wondering, who on earth is Ricky Stanzi? Ricky Stanzi was drafted in the fifth round by the Kansas City Chiefs. He never actually played a snap in the NFL, he was the Chiefs backup for two years before being released in 2013 and bounced around on a few different practice squads until entering the CFL in 2017. Considering both Dalton and Cam were three time pro bowlers, and Cam won the 2015 MVP while also leading them to a Super Bowl that same season, this obviously proved to be one of the worst pre-draft analysis’s Kiper has ever made.
3. “The Lions will regret passing on Brady Quinn for Calvin Johnson” (2007)
While Kiper loved the Lions choice of first round receiver in 2005 with Mike Williams, he was not so keen on them selecting Calvin Johnson. Kiper felt that the Lions were missing a golden opportunity to draft their quarterback of the future in Brady Quinn with the second overall pick. Ironically enough, Calvin Johnson ended up being the Hall of Fame receiver that Kiper thought Mike Williams was, as he was inducted in 2021 after career stats of 11,619 receiving yards, 84 total touchdowns and three all-pro selections. The Lions dodged a major bullet not listening to Kiper’s advice, as Brady Quinn slid on draft day to the Browns with the 22nd overall pick and became another huge draft bust, as he only lasted four seasons in the NFL and had a 4-16 starting record.
2. “Andre Wadsworth should be the number one pick over Peyton Manning and Charles Woodson” (1998)
In a class with some historic first round talent, Kiper shot for the stars and put Andre Wadsworth as his number one guy on his big board, saying that he was the closest thing you will find to Buffalo Bills’ Hall of Fame defensive end Bruce Smith in the draft. Wadsworth ended up being a huge bust and largely forgotten about by most fans, as he was more known for a lengthy rookie contract holdout than his actual play on the field. His holdout his rookie year caused him to miss all of training camp and return the night before the season opener, and when he returned he was largely a disappointment. Injuries cut his career short and he played just three seasons, with 108 total tackles and 8 total sacks. He was far from the Hall of Fame talent that Kiper hyped him up to be.
1. “If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, Iām done” (2010)
Taking the number one spot is none other than the most infamous cold take from Mel Kiper, where he declared that if Jimmy Clausen was not a successful quarterback in eight years, he would call it quits from ESPN. Kiper was so high on Clausen that he had him 4th overall on his big board, even though he had a second round grade from most other scouts and ended up getting selected 48th overall by the Panthers. Clausen’s career fizzled out very quickly, as he had a 1-13 record as a starting QB in his rookie season and was replaced by Cam Newton the very next season. He made a few spot starts in 2014 and 2015 before being out of the league for good after that. Clausen was far from a success, and Kiper still has yet to make good on his promise of retirement.
Are there any draft whiffs from Mel Kiper that you think I should have mentioned? Let me know in the comments.
Agree completely. Mel is a clown!