One of the greatest stories of this year’s college basketball season is the resurgence of the Illinois Fighting Illini. They currently rank as one of the top five schools in the country thanks to the amazing level of play by stars Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Ayo Dosunmu is in the running for the Wooden Award, with a statline of 21/6/5. This team is a lock to be a top seed in the tourney, and due to the tournament cancellation last year, the Illini have not made the big dance since 2013. This team also has a real chance to make a deep run in the tournament, something they have not done since 2005 when they made the championship and lost with the Deron Williams led squad. Their newfound success poses the question all college basketball fans are eagerly awaiting: are the Illini pretenders or contenders?
Strengths
One of the reasons for the Illini’s huge improvement is their revamped, fast-paced offense. Even though they were a decent team last season, they did not get nearly enough offensive possessions and were lacking in offensive efficiency along with the team three point percentage. Coach Brad Underwood has done a tremendous job at correcting these deficiencies, as U of I now ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, top 15 in three point percentage, and average five more possessions per game. This team’s offense is nothing short of elite, as they are also ranked in the top 20 of team points scored and assists. This change in offense has allowed superstar Ayo Dosunmu to average 5 more points per game, 2 more rebounds per game, and 2 more assists per game.
Weaknesses
One weakness the Illini do have is that they have not consistently beaten the best schools in the country. Out of the six games they have faced a top 25 school, they have a .500 winning percentage. They also just lost to unranked Michigan State, which is not the greatest look. This is a bit concerning since the majority of the teams they have faced have been unranked, and when they do face a ranked team they are a bit inconsistent. Their RPI is 25th overall, which is solid but not elite compared to other elite teams like Gonzaga and Baylor.
Pretenders or Contenders?
So are the Illini pretenders or contenders? After evaluating their offensive stats, coaching and strength of schedule, I think the Illini will be able to make a deep run to one of the later rounds, but will lose to a top tier team. While I think their fast paced offense will create a problem for defenses in the tournament, their lack of success against top tier teams will come back to bite them, and I think a team like Gonzaga or Baylor will be able to exploit their lack of experience against powerhouses to their best advantage.
What do you think? What do you think the ceiling is for Ayo Dosunmu and the Illini?