Image: Tennesseean.com
The NFL season is officially here! After another long and exciting offseason, the regular season finally returns on Thursday with the Ravens and Chiefs facing off. The regular season kicking off also means another annual edition of my top ten hot takes for fantasy! This year’s draft rankings were arguably more subjective than ever, with nine different receivers dominating the first round projections. Keeping that in mind, here are ten fantasy football hot takes for the 2024 season. For last minute drafters and those who are wavering in confidence with their team, pay close attention!
(NOTE: All scoring refers to half-PPR formats.)
Quarterbacks
Caleb Williams will be the first rookie quarterback to finish in the top 5 QBs since 2019.
There has never been a better time to be a Bears fan. The hype around the Bears offense is through the roof and for good reason, as adding Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to a receiving core that already has DJ Moore is an amazing supporting cast for any quarterback, but for a generational talent like Caleb the sky is the limit for potential. This is one of the best supporting casts that a number one quarterback has had in years, and I think that this will make the learning curve very abbreviated for Caleb. I expect Caleb to be a must start quarterback every week and a top 5 scorer at the position, the first one since Kyler Murray in 2019.
Will Levis will finish as a top 10 quarterback.
Levis took over the reins in week 8 for Tennessee last season and while he struggled with inconsistency, there were flashes of greatness there, such as his debut game against Atlanta where he threw for four TDs. Now that the Titans have an all new, offensive minded coaching staff, I expect Levis’ to make a huge jump in year two. New head coach Brian Callahan was the Bengals offensive coordinator from 2019-2023, and during the time they had Joe Burrow their offense ranked top ten in passing yards per game, points per game and red zone efficiency. The Titans also signed Calvin Ridley this offseason, giving Levis another intriguing weapon to throw to. Now that Tennessee will be finally running a pass first offense under Callahan, I believe Levis will take the massive leap to stardom and become a top 10, must start fantasy QB in the process.
Dak Prescott will rank outside the top 12 QBs.
After yet another first round playoff exit, Dak is entering a “prove it” year to the organization and fans with one more year left on his deal before free agency. There has been a lot of turmoil around Dallas with the way Jerry Jones has handled looming contract extensions, with CeeDee Lamb missing all of training camp and most of preseason due to his respective dispute. With the Cowboys just now getting CeeDee back and losing Tony Pollard in free agency, the offense has a high percentage of struggling this year. I predict that the media attention and lack of an elite run game will cause Dan to struggle this season, putting him outside the top 12 and no longer an every week fantasy stud.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs will finish as the overall RB1.
The Lions offense was one of the league’s best last season, with Gibbs’ second half performance being a huge reason as to why. From weeks 9-18, Gibbs had the seventh most fantasy points at the position and proved to be one of the league’s most exciting young backs. With Ben Johnson returning at offensive coordinator, I expect the offense to continue targeting Gibbs heavily and despite sharing touches with David Montgomery, I think that he will be a large enough receiving threat where he will finish as the number one scoring player at the position.
Devin Singletary will be a top 5 fantasy running back this season.
The Giants have been left with the difficult task of replacing star running back Saquon Barkley, after he signed a three-year, 37.75 million dollar deal with the Eagles this offseason. The Giants then signed Singletary to a three-year deal to attempt to cushion the blow, which may seem underwhelming on the surface, but is what I feel to be one of the most underrated signings of the offseason. Singletary was quietly a top 10 back in weeks 10-18 after taking over for an ineffective Dameon Pierce on the Titans. Entering the Giants, he is very familiar with coach Brian Daboll’s system from playing with him through his rookie contract on the Bills. On a team with one of the league’s worst receiving cores, Singletary is in a prime position to be a workhorse and three down back for the Giants. I think that he will end up having a career year and finish as a top five RB in fantasy, now that the cards are finally aligned for him to thrive.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb will finish outside the top 10 wide receivers.
While it is huge for both the Cowboys and fantasy owners that CeeDee finally signed a deal and ended his holdout, the fact that he missed all of training camp and most of the preseason is bothersome to me. The Cowboys are in a make or break season, but with CeeDee just coming back to team activities now, my expectations are tempered. While I do not think CeeDee will be bad by any means, I expect some rust in the early season and regression from his dominant last season where he finished as the number one scoring receiver. I predict a performance just outside the top 10, not living up to the first round draft grade for 2024.
Despite legal concerns in the offseason, Rashee Rice will be a top 12 wide receiver this year.
Chiefs fans were left with a burden of worry this offseason after Rice was arrested for causing a multi-car crash that left two people hospitalized. Despite this horrific incident, it appears that there will be no suspension for Rice to serve at this time, leaving him in position to pick back up where he left off as the Chiefs number one receiver. Rice is listed as the 24th ranked receiver in pre draft rankings, but considering there is no suspension I cannot understand why. Rice was one of the league’s best receivers in the second half of the year after a slow start to his rookie season, and now that he has had an offseason to build more chemistry with Mahomes I expect nothing but huge numbers and a top 12 finish at the position from Rice this year.
Brian Thomas will be the highest scoring rookie receiver.
Off the surface, this take seems outrageous in a draft class with generational prospects Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. However, I believe that Thomas will be a huge dark horse for the offensive rookie of the year due to his prime landing spot and lack of competition for targets. Jacksonville is one of the most underrated spots that a talented rookie receiver could go, as Trevor Lawrence is a top 10 passer in the league and arguably the best besides Josh Allen who is in need of a true number one wideout. With his speed and ability to stretch the field, I think Thomas will be a stud for Jacksonville and finish as the highest scoring rookie receiver.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid will be the number one scoring tight end this year.
The Bills and Stefon Diggs parted ways this offseason after four straight 1,000 yard seasons, leaving a void of receiving talent for Josh Allen to throw to. The Bills surprisingly chose to neglect replacing Diggs with a high caliber receiver this offseason, and although they did draft Keon Coleman and sign Curtis Samuel, these guys are nowhere near the talent of Diggs and the Bills squad is currently lacking a true number one. This will benefit Kincaid in a huge way in 2024. Kincaid had flashes of brilliance last season, such as Weeks 17-18 where he had back to back games with 80+ receiving yards, and with less competition for targets I see a very realistic path to Kincaid becoming a star for the Bills. I believe that Josh Allen will depend on Kincaid heavily as a familiar face on offense, which will lead to Kincaid being the number one fantasy tight end.
Trey McBride will finish outside the top 7 tight ends.
McBride rewarded fantasy managers who scooped him up off the waiver wire last year big time, as after a breakout performance in week 8 he finished as the fourth highest scoring tight end. He was made the focal point of an otherwise lifeless Arizona offense last year, as Arizona threw 32% of passes to the tight end position which made it the most TE-centric offense in the league. This has made his fantasy pre-draft hype super high this season, but with Marvin Harrison Jr. coming into town I expect a whopping amount of targets to be reallocated to MHJ. While McBride will still very likely be featured, I think that people need to cool their expectations on how good he will be this year. I expect some regression now that he is not the number one target and I predict a finish just outside the top 7.